Cosmosent "Timmy"



Timmy

iPhone Unit Sales Estimator

The ONLY per-Qtr, per-Device iPhone Unit Sales Estimator on the planet !

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We recommend ONLY the following three Pro Stock Analysts:

(when considering OR evaluating AAPL)

Toni Sacconaghi

Jeffrey Kavaal

Dan Niles

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Timmy v2.0

Tap one of the buttons to present the screenshots.

Those sufficiently Skilled in the Art should immediately recognize the Insight !

To those NOT sufficiently Skilled in the Art, notice the Trends for the Percentages for "Used" & "Trade Ins," & the Net Result of that.

Also, please note that the screenshots represent what Apple offered just-before they announced the 2nd-Gen iPhone SE.

We're now updating Timmy to include the 2nd-Gen SE, & which drops the 8 & 8+.


1/12
1
2/12
1b
3/12
6
4/12
6b
5/12
5
6/12
5b
7/12
4
8/12
4b
9/12
3
10/12
3b
11/12
2
12/12
2b


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The following numbers are extracted directly from Timmy v2.0



1Q19

(Oct-Dec)



2Q19

(Jan-Mar)



3Q19

(Apr-Jun)



4Q19

(Jul-Sep)



1Q20

(Oct-Dec)



2Q20

(Jan-Mar)



Reported

(in Billions)


$51.982


$31.051


$25.986


$33.362


$55.957


$24.841

Projected


Used


0%


0%


1%


2%


3%


4%


New


100%


100%


99%


98%


97%


96%


Trade Ins


0%


3%


4%


5%


6%


7%


Net


100%%


97%


96%


95%


94%


93%


Net

(in Billions)


$51.982


$30.119


$24.696


$31.059


$51.021


$22.177


YY Net


-15.6%


-20.8%


-17.4%


-16.5%


-1.8%


-26.4%


Units


55.0M


43.7M


34.8M


39.4M


55.0M


35.0M


ASP


$949


$884


$733


$822


$863


$677



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Our Analysis of AAPL's Q1 FY2020 Results

(please note that this is just our Initial, First-Order Approximation)



2019
iPhone



List

(USD)



Unit Sales


"Reported" iPhone Revenue

(USD)



Estimated
Avg.
Trade-In
Discount

(USD)



"Actual" iPhone Revenue

(USD)



11 Pro Max


$1,099


6.6M

(12%)



$7.253B


$350

($749 Net)



$5.867B


11 Pro


$999


6.6M

(12%)



$6.593B


$300

($699 Net)



$5.405B


11


$699


8.8M

(16%)


$6.151B


$250

($449 Net)


$4.831B



The Revenue Delta (Reported vs Actual) is $3.894B USD (that's ~$4B USD) !


We assume Apple records the Full List Price of an iPhone sale, regardless as to whether the sale included a Trade In.

We assume 55M iPhones were sold during the quarter.

We assume the 2019 iPhones accounted for 40% of ALL iPhones sales during the quarter.

We assume 60% of those included a Trade In (across the board).

We believe ALL of our assumptions are accurate.

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iPhone Unit Sales : Past, Present & Future



iPhone
Product Launch


(CY)


Total Units

(in Millions)



% Change


2020


TBD


TBD


2019


94.4


-7.4%


2018


101.9


-17.8%


2017


124.0


0.2%


2016


123.8


0.8%


2015


122.8


-



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Fiscal Year


Millions of Units

(ASP)



1Q

(Oct-Dec)



2Q

(Jan-Mar)



3Q

(Apr-Jun)



4Q

(Jul-Sep)



Total
Units



2020


55.0

($863)



35.0

($664)



-


-


-


2019


55.0 (6)

($949)



43.7

($884)



34.8

($721)



39.4 (7)

($822)



172.9


2018


77.3 (4)

($796)



52.2

($728)



41.3

($724)



46.9 (5)

($793)



217.7


2017


78.3

($695)



50.8

($655)



41.0

($606)



46.7 (3)

($618)



216.8


2016


74.8

($691)



51.2

($642)



40.4

($595)



45.5 (2)

($619)


211.9


2015


74.5

($687)



61.2

($659)



47.5

($660)



48.0 (1)

($670)


231.2



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iPhone


Official Release


11, 11 Pro, 11 Pro Max
(7)



Sept 20, 2019


XR
(6)



Oct 26, 2018


XS, XS Max
(5)



Sept 21, 2018


X
(4)



Nov 3, 2017


8, 8+
(3)



Sept 22, 2017


7, 7+
(2)



Sept 16, 2016


6s, 6s+
(1)



Sept 25, 2015



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Fiscal
Year



Reported
Revenue



Reported
iPhone
Revenue


(% of
Total Revenue)

(in Billions)


Products

(in Billions)


Services

(in Billions)


2019


$213.883


$46.291


$142.381

(54.7%)


2018


$225.847


$39.748


$164.888

(62.1%)


2017


$196.534


$32.700


$139.337

(60.8%)


2016


$191.291


$24.348


$136.700

(63.4%)


2015


$213.806


$19.909


$155.041

(66.3%)


2014


$164.732


$18.063


$101.991

(55.8%)


2013


$154.859


$16.051


$91.279

(53.4%)


2012


$143.618


$12.890


$78.692

(50.3%)


2011


$98.876


$9.373


$45.998

(42.5%)



As a reminder, OR for those who are UN-aware, Apple released the iPhone 6 & 6 Plus on Sept 19, 2014, & the iPhone X on Nov 3, 2017 ... they triggered the ONLY two surges in iPhone Unit Sales.

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Fiscal Year 2019

(Reported Numbers extracted from Form 10-Q)



Quarter


Reported
Revenue



Reported
iPhone
Revenue


(% of
Total Revenue)

(in Billions)


Total

(in Billions)


Products

(in Billions)


Services

(in Billions)


4Q19


$64.040


$51.529


$12.511


$33.362

(52.1%)


3Q19


$53.809


$42.354


$11.455


$25.986

(48.3%)


2Q19


$58.015


$46.565


$11.450


$31.051

(53.5%)


1Q19


$84.310


$74.435


$10.875


$51.982

(61.7%)



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Fiscal Year


Reported
Long Term Debt

(Billions of USD)



1Q

(Oct-Dec)



2Q

(Jan-Mar)



3Q

(Apr-Jun)



4Q

(Jul-Sep)



2020


-


-


-


-


2019


$92.989 (6)


$90.201


$84.936


91.807 (7)


2018


$103.922 (4)


$101.362


$97.128


$93.735 (5)


2017


$73.557


$84.531


$89.864


$97.207 (3)


2016


$53.204


$69.374


$68.939


$75.427 (2)


2015


TBD


TBD


TBD


$53.329 (1)